Les Mayhew

Les Mayhew is part-time Professor of Statistics at Cass Business School. He is Honorary Fellow of the Institute for Actuaries and a member of the Royal Economic Society. He is a former senior civil servant and graduate of the government’s Top Management Programme. He is a member of the Office for National Statistics expert panel that advises on population projections. His research interests include health, pensions, and health and long term care, for which he has received various research grants. He is twice a winner of the Cass research prize.

He is managing director of Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd. (MHA), a research consultancy specialising in the use of large administrative data sets and Geographical Information Systems. MHA Ltd. is expert is joining together administrative information spanning more than one agency (for example, health, local authority and police) for addressing a range of local issues including population estimation. He advises, and undertakes various assignments for, central government, health care providers, and local authorities involving policy evaluation, resource allocation and service commissioning.

Before joining City University in 2001, he was Professorial Research Fellow in Geography at Birkbeck College, London. Between 1993 and 1998, he was a director in the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and its predecessor the Central Statistical Office (CSO), based in HM Treasury. Prior to 1993 he was a senior civil servant in the Department of Social Security (DSS) and Senior Principal Scientific Officer in the Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS), where he was part of the Operational Research Service. After completing his PhD in 1979, he was seconded by the Royal Society to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Vienna for 2 1/2 years. He remains a periodic visitor to IIASA, and worked for example on IIASA’s Social Security Reform programme between 1999 and 2003.

His past research also includes transport with peer reviewed publications on the London congestion charge, siting of airports serving large cities, strategic road networks, and traffic tolls on river crossings. He co-authored a book, published in 2004, on the ‘Economic impacts of population ageing in Japan’. A book based on his PhD entitled Urban Hospital Location was published in 1986. He was visitor to the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Newcastle, NSW Australia, and worked for a period at the Institute for Social and Economic Research (IRES) in Turin.

Expertise: demography, uses of administrative data, pensions, health and social care, transport

Qualifications

BSc and PhD.

Visiting Appointments

Associate Research Scholar, Internal Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria, 1980 – present

Memberships of Professional Organisations

• Fellow, Faculty of Public Health, 2013
• Member, Institute of Actuaries, pensions and long term care working party and steering group
• Honorary Fellow, Institute of Actuaries
• Ordinary member, Royal Economic Society

Award

• Honorary fellow of the Institute of Actuaries
• Made an honorary fellow of the Institute of Actuaries

Languages

French and German.

Expertise

Primary Topics

• Actuarial Science
• Demography
• Economics
• Operations Research
• Statistics

Additional Topics

Health Insurance

Industries/Professions

• health care
• public sector

Geographic Areas

• Americas - North
• Australia & Oceania
• Europe
• Europe - Central
• Scandinavia

Research

Demographic methods, ageing populations, long-term care, pensions, health care, health, economics of ageing. Uses of administrative for estimating populations, data linkage, uses and applications.

Research Topics

• demographic methods see publications
• Exploitation of administrative data and 'big data' For estimating populations, data linkage and applications in local government and health authorities

Books (3)

• Mayhew, L. and O'Leary, D. (2014). Unlocking the potential. UK: DEMOS. ISBN 978-1-909037-54-0.
• Mayhew, L., McKellar, L., Horlacher, D. and Ermoliev, T. (2004). The Economic Impacts of Population Ageing in Japan. ISBN 978-1-84376-360-4.
• Mayhew, L. (1986). Urban Hospital Location. Taylor & Francis. ISBN 978-0-04-362054-0.

Chapters (6)

• Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2016). Decomposition of life expectancy at older ages and prospects for ageing populations. Applied Spatial Modelling and Planning (pp. 172–188). ISBN 978-1-317-40673-0.
• Mayhew, L. (2011). Increasing Longevity and the Economic Value of Healthy Ageing and Longer Working. In Stillwell, J. and Clarke, M. (Eds.), Population Dynamics and Projection Methods (pp. 165–192). Netherlands: Springer. ISBN 978-90-481-8929-8.
• Mayhew, L. (2011). Using local administrative data to evaluate social/community cohesion. Promoting social cohesion Implications for policy and evaluation (pp. 101–120). Policy Press. ISBN 978-1-84742-694-9.
• Karlsson, M., Mayhew, L. and Rickayzen, B. (2008). In Sickness and in Health? Dynamic of Health and Cohabitation in the United Kingdom. In Dawson, S. and Slote Morris, Z. (Eds.), Future Public Health Burdens: Challenges and Opportunities (pp. 155–174). Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 978-0-230-01359-9.
• Mayhew, L. (2004). The Public-Private Split in Health Care Systems. In MacKellar, L., Andriouchina, E. and Horlacher, D. (Eds.), Policy Pathways to Health in the Russian Federation (pp. 55–65). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
• Mayhew, L. and Hyman, G. (2001). Reassessing Urban space Using Fast Route Geometry. In Pitfield, D. (Ed.), Transport planning, logistics, and spatial mismatch (pp. 05–21). London: Pion

Journal Articles (45)

• Mayhew, L., Smith, D. and Wright, I. (2017). The effect of longevity drift and investment volatility on income sufficiency in retirement. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics . doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.09.013.
• Mayhew, L. (2017). Means Testing Adult Social Care in England. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 42(3), pp. 500–529. doi:10.1057/s41288-016-0041-0.
• Mayhew, L., Smith, D. and O'Leary, D. (2017). Paying for Care Costs in Later Life Using the Value in People's Homes. GENEVA PAPERS ON RISK AND INSURANCE-ISSUES AND PRACTICE, 42(1), pp. 129–151. doi:10.1057/gpp.2015.34.
• Harper, G. and Mayhew, L. (2016). Using Administrative Data to Count and Classify Households with Local Applications. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 9(4), pp. 433–462. doi:10.1007/s12061-015-9162-2.
• Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2015). On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life. Population Studies, 69(1), pp. 73–89. doi:10.1080/00324728.2014.972433.
• Ashwell, M., Mayhew, L., Richardson, J. and Rickayzen, B. (2014). Waist-to-height ratio is more predictive of years of life lost than body mass index. PLoS ONE, 9(9) . doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103483.
• Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2014). Gender Convergence in Human Survival and the Postponement of Death. North American Actuarial Journal, 18(1), pp. 194–216. doi:10.1080/10920277.2013.863140.
• Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2014). Personal care savings bonds: A new way of saving towards social care in later life. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice, 39(4), pp. 668–692. doi:10.1057/gpp.2014.30.
• Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2013). A new method of projecting populations based on trends in life expectancy and survival. Population Studies, 67(2), pp. 157–170. doi:10.1080/00324728.2012.740500.
• Sturdy, P., Bremner, S., Harper, G., Mayhew, L., Eldridge, S., Eversley, J., Sheikh, A., Hunter, S., Boomla, K., Feder, G., Prescott, K. and Griffiths, C. (2012). Impact of Asthma on Educational Attainment in a Socioeconomically Deprived Population: A Study Linking Health, Education and Social Care Datasets. PLoS ONE, 7(11) . doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043977.
• Harper, G. and Mayhew, L. (2012). Applications of Population Counts Based on Administrative Data at Local Level. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 5(3), pp. 183–209. doi:10.1007/s12061-011-9062-z.
• Harper, G. and Mayhew, L. (2012). Using administrative data to count local populations. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 5(2), pp. 97–122. doi:10.1007/s12061-011-9063-y.
• Smith, D.A., Butt, Z., Mayhew, L.D., Rickayzen, B.D., Bhullar, H. and Dattani, H. (2012). A METHOD OF PROJECTING FUTURE CO-MORBIDITY PREVALENCE AND HEALTH SERVICE DEMAND IN THE UNITED KINGDOM POPULATION USING THE HEALTH IMPROVEMENT NETWORK (THIN). VALUE IN HEALTH, 15(4), pp. A163–A163.
• Mayhew, L. and Rickayzen, B. (2012). The ageing population: Crunch time for government reforms. Economic Affairs, 32(2), pp. 96–100. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0270.2012.02165.x.
• Smith, D.A., Butt, Z., Mayhew, L.D., Rickayzen, B.D., Bhullar, H. and Dattani, H. (2012). PRM27 A Method of Projecting Future Co-Morbidity Prevalence and Health Service Demand in the United Kingdom Population Using the Health Improvement Network (THIN). Value in Health, 15(4), pp. A163–A163. doi:10.1016/j.jval.2012.03.883.
• Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2011). Human Survival at Older Ages and the Implications for Longevity Bond Pricing. North American Actuarial Journal, 15(2), pp. 248–265. doi:10.1080/10920277.2011.10597620.
• Mayhew, L., Karlsson, M. and Rickayzen, B. (2010). The role of private finance in paying for long term care. Economic Journal, 120(548) . doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02388.x.
• Mayhew, L. (2009). On the effectiveness of care co-ordination services aimed at preventing hospital admissions and emergency attendances. Health Care Management Science, 12(3), pp. 269–284. doi:10.1007/s10729-008-9092-5.
• Karlsson, M., Mayhew, L. and Rickayzen, B. (2008). Individualised Life Tables. Journal of Population Ageing, 1(2-4), pp. 153–191. doi:10.1007/s12062-009-9008-2.
• Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2008). Using queuing theory to analyse the government's 4-H completion time target in accident and emergency departments. Health Care Manag Sci, 11(1), pp. 11–21.
• Hyman, G. and Mayhew, L. (2008). Toll optimisation on river crossings serving large cities. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 42(1), pp. 28–47. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2007.06.011.
• Brogan, C., Lawrence, D. and Mayhew, L. (2008). Clinical-outcome-based demand management in health services. Public Health, 122(1), pp. 84–91. doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2007.04.013.
• Karlsson, M., Mayhew, L. and Rickayzen, B. (2007). Long term care financing in four OECD countries: fiscal burden and distributive effects. Health Policy, 80(1), pp. 107–134. doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2006.02.002.
• Blake, D. and Mayhew, L. (2006). On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility. The Economic Journal, 116(512), pp. F286–F305. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01100.x.
• Mayhew, L. and Lawrence, D. (2006). The costs and service implications of substituting intermediate care for acute hospital care. Health Serv Manage Res, 19(2), pp. 80–93. doi:10.1258/095148406776829077.
• Karlsson, M., Mayhew, L., Plumb, R. and Rickayzen, B. (2006). Future costs for long-term care: Cost projections for long-term care for older people in the United Kingdom. Health Policy, 75(2), pp. 187–213. doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2005.03.006.
• Mayhew, L. (2006). Pensions white paper is a major deal. Employee Benefits, 2006(July), pp. 18–18.
• Mayhew, L. (2005). ACTIVE AGEING IN THE UK-ISSUES, BARRIERS, POLICY DIRECTIONS. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 18(4), pp. 455–477. doi:10.1080/13511610500384202.
• Hyman, G. and Mayhew, L. (2004). Advances in travel geometry and urban modelling. GeoJournal, 59(3), pp. 191–207. doi:10.1023/B:GEJO.0000026689.48422.96.
• Mayhew, L. (2003). Disability-Global trends and international perspectives. Innovation, 16(1), pp. 3–28. doi:10.1080/13511610304511.
• Hyman, G. and Mayhew, L. (2002). Optimizing the benefits of urban road user charging. , 9(3), pp. 189–207.
• Hyman, G. and Mayhew, L. (2001). Market area analysis under orbital–radial routing with applications to the study of airport location. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 25(2), pp. 195–222. doi:10.1016/S0198-9715(00)00029-6.
• Hyman, G. and Mayhew, L. (2000). The Properties of Route Catchments in Orbital – Radial Cities. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 27(6), pp. 843–863. doi:10.1068/b26102.
• Mayhew, L. (2000). Using Geometry to Evaluate Strategic Road Proposals in Orbital-Radial Cities. Urban Studies, 37(13), pp. 2515–2532. doi:10.1080/00420980020080671.
• Mayhew, L. and Hyman, G. (2000). The impact of fast routes on urban travel geometry. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 27(2), pp. 265–282.
• Wilson, R.M., Gibberd, R.W. and Mayhew, L.D. (1990). Resource Allocation and Planning in Health Care Systems. Environment and Planning A, 22(12), pp. 1657–1665. doi:10.1068/a221657.
• Mayhew, L. (1988). Integrated models for health care planning. Sistemi Urbani, 1, pp. 41–49.
• Mayhew, L.D. (1987). Resource Inputs and Performance Outputs in Social Security Offices. The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 38(10), pp. 913–913. doi:10.2307/2582652.
• Mayhew, L.D., Gibberd, R.W. and Hall, H. (1986). Predicting Patient Flows and Hospital Case-Mix. Environment and Planning A, 18(5), pp. 619–638. doi:10.1068/a180619.
• Mayhew, L. (1986). The potential for day hospitals in Piemonte. Sistemi Urbani, 1, pp. 75–106.
• Hyman, G.M. and Mayhew, L.D. (1983). On the Geometry of Emergency Service Medical Provision in Cities. Environment and Planning A, 15(12), pp. 1669–1690. doi:10.1068/a151669.
• Mayhew, L.D. and Leonardi, G. (1982). Equity, Efficiency, and Accessibility in Urban and Regional Health-Care Systems. Environment and Planning A, 14(11), pp. 1479–1507. doi:10.1068/a141479.
• Mayhew, L.D. (1981). AUTOMATED ISOCHRONES AND THE LOCATIONS OF EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES IN CITIES. The Professional Geographer, 33(4), pp. 423–428. doi:10.1111/j.0033-0124.1981.00423.x.
• Aspden, P., Mayhew, L. and Rusnak, M. (1981). DRAM: a model of health care resource allocation in czechoslovakia. Omega, 9(5), pp. 509–518. doi:10.1016/0305-0483(81)90007-4.
• Taket, A. and Mayhew, L. (1981). Interactions between the supply of and demand for hospital services in London. Omega, 9(5), pp. 519–526. doi:10.1016/0305-0483(81)90008-6.

Editorial Activities (2)

• Population Studies, Referee, 2013 – present.
• European Journal of Social Science, Member of Editorial Board, 2005 – present.