Ilia Tsetlin

Ilia M. Tsetlin is Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD. His teaching and research interests are in modeling decisions under uncertainty, with particular focus on decision making with multiple attributes, target-based and contest-based settings, and situations with background risk. Other research streams are related to negotiation, auction theory, and collective choice. His work has been published in a number of academic journals including Management Science, Operations Research, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Journal of Economic Theory, Psychological Review, Games and Economic Behavior, and Social Choice and Welfare.

He teaches Uncertainty, Data and Judgment; Models for Strategic Planning, (MBA); Probability and Statistics, Bayesian Analysis (PhD), and modules on decision making (EDP). He holds a PhD in Business Administration from Duke University and a MSci in Applied Mathematics and Physics from Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology.''

Research Areas

• Decision Making
• Auction Theory
• Bayesian Statistics
• Collective Choice

Teaching Areas

• Uncertainty, Data and Judgment;
• Models for Strategic Planning, (MBA);
• Probability and Statistics, Bayesian Analysis (PhD), and modules on decision making (Executive Education)

Industry Sectors

• Information Technology

Publications

• Babic B., Gaba A., Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (Forthcoming). Normativity, Epistemic Rationality, and Noisy Statistical Evidence. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
• Makridakis S., Spiliotis E., Assimakopoulos V., Chen Z., Gaba A., Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2022). The M5 Uncertainty Competition: Results, Findings and Conclusions. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(4), pp1365-1385.
• Chen Z., Gaba A., Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2022). Evaluating Quantile Forecasts in the M5 Uncertainty Competition. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(4), pp1531-1545.
• Muller A., Scarsini M., Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2022). Technical Note - Ranking Distributions When Only Means and Variances Are Known. Operations Research, 70(5), pp2851-2859.
• Dutt P., Tsetlin I. (2021). Income Distribution and Economic Development: Insights From Machine Learning. Economics & Politics, 33(1), pp1-36.
• Zorc S., Tsetlin I. (2020). Deadlines, Offer Timing, and the Search for Alternatives. Operations Research, 68(3), pp927-948.
• McCardle K., Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2018). When to Abandon a Research Project and Search for a New One. Operations Research, 66(3), pp799-813.
• Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2018). Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 85(2), pp431-445.
• Muller A., Scarsini M., Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2017). Between First- and Second-Order Stochastic Dominance. Management Science, 63(9), pp2933-2947.
• Gaba A., Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2017). Combining Interval Forecasts . Decision Analysis, 14(1), pp1-20.
• Massala O., Tsetlin I. (2015). Search Before Trade-offs Are Known. Decision Analysis, 12(3), pp105-121. Award Winning
• Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L., Huang R. J., Tzeng L. Y. (2015). Generalized Almost Stochastic Dominance . Operations Research, 63(2), pp363-377.
• Lau N., Bart Y., Bearden J. N., Tsetlin I. (2014). Exploding Offers Can Blow Up in More than One Way. Decision Analysis, 11(3), pp171-188. Award Winning
• Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2012). Multiattribute One-switch Utility . Management Science, 58(3), pp602-605.
• Tsetlin I., Van Zandt T., Padmanabhan V. (2010). Setting Price or Quantity: Depends on what the Seller is More Uncertain About. Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 8(1), pp35-60.
• Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2009). Multiattribute Utility Specifying a Preference for Combining Good with Bad . Management Science, 55(12)
• Tang W., Bearden J. N., Tsetlin I. (2009). Ultimatum Deadlines . Management Science, 55(8), pp1423-1437.
• Mezzetti C., Tsetlin I. (2009). Auctions in which Losers Set the Price. Games and Economic Behavior, 66(2), pp855-864.
• Eeckhoudt L., Schlesinger H., Tsetlin I. (2009). Apportioning of Risks via Stochastic Dominance. Journal of Economic Theory, 144(3), pp994-1003.
• Sasa Pekec A., Tsetlin I. (2008). Revenue Ranking of Discriminatory and Uniform Auctions with an Unknown Number of Bidders. Management Science, 54(9), pp1610-1623.
• Mezzetti C., Tsetlin I. (2008). On the Lowest-winning-bid and the Highest-losing-bid Auctions. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 44(9), pp1040-1048.
• Mezzetti C., Sasa Pekec A., Tsetlin I. (2008). Sequential Vs. Single-Round Uniform-Price Auctions. Games and Economic Behavior, 62(2), pp591-609.
• Harstad R., Sasa Pekec A., Tsetlin I. (2008). Information Aggregation in Auctions with an Unknown Number of Bidders. Games and Economic Behavior, 62(2), pp476-508.
• Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. (2007). Decision Making with Multiattribute Performance Targets: The Impact of Changes in Performance and Target Distributions. Operations Research, 55(2), pp226-233.
• Tsetlin I. (2006). A Method for Eliciting Utilities and its Application to Collective Choice. Theory and Decision, 61(1), pp51-62.
• Winkler R. L., Tsetlin I. (2006). On Equivalent Target-Oriented Formulations for Multiattribute Utility. Decision Analysis, 3(2), pp94-99.
• Sasa Pekec A., Tsetlin I. (2006). On the Existence of an Increasing Symmetric Equilibrium in (k + 1)-st Price Common Value Auctions. Review of Economic Design, 10(1), pp63-71.