Zoltan Butt

Zoltan Butt is a lecturer in actuarial science at Faculty of Actuarial Science and Statistics, teaching Financial and Investment Mathematics and Applications of Information Technology to undergraduate students. He has graduated in 1998 from Middlesex University, London with a BSc Hons (1st class) in Mathematics with Statistics - also winning the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications prize. He has obtained his PhD in Actuarial Science in 2014 from City University, London - A Study of Actuarial Models for Insurance Based Applications.

His research interests are primarily related to mortality, morbidity models and risk analysis of health insurance products. In addition, he is attracted to data analysis and programming, gaining an extensive computer literacy. Thus, he has contributed to translate theoretical insurance models into practical software, such as a simulation based Income Protection model office and its implementation into a computer application; also a VBA modelling tool for calculating disability linked annuities for Long Term Care Insurance. More recently, he has contributed to developing an improved methodology of estimating employment risk reduction factors to be used in the UK tort system for valuing loss of earnings compensations. This project, carried out in collaboration with the Ogden Working Party, has involved estimating age-specific disability- and education-adjusted reduction factors(RF) of employment risk using longitudinal UK Labour Force Survey data. Consequently, the RF estimates resulted from this research were adopted in a simplified and restructured format by the Government Actuary’s Department in the follow-up editions of the Ogden Tables (i.e. 6th and 7th: Actuarial Tables 2007, 2011), which are accepted as specialist evidence in the UK courts.

Qualifications

PhD in Actuarial Science.

Languages

Hungarian and Romanian; Moldavian; Moldovan.

Expertise

Primary Topics

• Actuarial Science
• Actuarial Statistics
• Demography

Additional Topics

• Econometrics
• Health Insurance
• Stochastic Processes

Industries/Professions

insurance

Research Topics

Estimation of the loss of earnings for lead claimants in the construction industry

This project aims to estimate potential earnings in the construction sector for historically blacklisted workers (from late 1960's to early 2010's). The underlying purpose is to develop a schedule of wages and employment probabilities according to relevant characteristics (for example year, age, trade, type of project) in order to provide expert evidence in UK Courts towards the estimation of blacklisted individuals’ claims for loss of earnings.

Multiple-state Markov Model to forecast the number of people who will require Long-Term Care

The project is developed in collaboration with Ben Rickayzen and David Smith with the purpose to re-assess and extend the original Rickayzen-Walsh LTC projection model (2000). The aim of this project is to develop further the original LTC model in order to achieve a robust and fully tested empirical projection model. The new model will also make use of the latest UK projections of mortality and morbidity rates. The ultimate aim of the model is to project and analyse the demographics and dynamics (e.g. by age, gender and severity of disability) of the future UK population who will likely need LTC. The model is implemented and tested using VBA for Excel.

Mortality forecasting using Lee-Carter model variants

The project aims to extend the Lee-Carter age-period mortality model and to develop a publicly available demographic software that implements the regression analysis of the model variants into a unified framework.

Analysis of health risks and health care usage in the UK

In this project it is made use of the extensive Health Improvement Network (THIN) medical GP practices data in order to model and forecast the main factors of health risks and health care usage in the UK.

Chapter

Butt, Z., Haberman, S., Verrall, R. and Wass, V. (2009). Estimating and using work life expectancy in the United Kingdom. In Ward, J. and Thornton, R.J. (Eds.), Personal Injury and Wrongful Death Damages Calculations: A Trans-Atlantic Dialogue (pp. 103–134). USA: Emerald. ISBN 978-1-84855-302-6.

Conference Papers and Proceedings (7)

• Verall, R., Butt, Z., Haberman, S. and Wass, V. (2008). Calculating compensation for loss of future earnings: Estimating and using work life expectancy. Royal Statistical Society Ordinary Meeting London, UK.
• Verrall, R., Zoltan Butt, S.H., Wass, V. and Butt, Z. (2008). Estimating loss of future earnings: Contingencies other than mortality (The 6th Edition of the Ogden Tables). Workshop of Faculty of Actuarial Science and Statistics London, UK.
• Verrall, R., Butt, Z. and Haberman, S. (2005). The Ogden Tables and Contingencies other than mortality. National Association of Forensic Economics Conference Dublin, Ireland.
• Haberman, S., Butt, Z. and Rickayzen, B. (2002). Modelling Techniques: Modelling and Measuring Risk in Disability Income Insurance Portfolios. Conference of the Istituto Italiano degli Attuari Rome, Italy.
• Butt, Z. and Haberman, S. (2000). Frailty Models and Applications to Mortality Graduation and Forecasting. 31st ASTIN Colloquium Porto Cervo, Sardinia. September.
• Butt, Z., Rickayzen, B. and Haberman, S. (2000). Modelling Solvency of PHI Portfolios. Health Care Convention Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Torquay, September.
• Haberman, S., Butt, Z. and Rickayzen, B. (2000). Multiple State Models, Simulation and Insurer Insolvency. 31st ASTIN Colloquium Porto Cervo, Sardinia, Italy.

Journal Articles (8)

• Smith, D.A., Butt, Z., Mayhew, L.D., Rickayzen, B.D., Bhullar, H. and Dattani, H. (2012). A METHOD OF PROJECTING FUTURE CO-MORBIDITY PREVALENCE AND HEALTH SERVICE DEMAND IN THE UNITED KINGDOM POPULATION USING THE HEALTH IMPROVEMENT NETWORK (THIN). VALUE IN HEALTH, 15(4), pp. A163–A163.
• Butt, Z., Haberman, S., Verrall, R. and Wass, V. (2010). Work life expectancy: Calculating compensation for loss of future earnings. Measurement and Control, 43(5), pp. 146–151.
• Butt, Z., Haberman, S., Verrall, R. and Wass, V. (2008). Calculating compensation for loss of future earnings: Estimating and using work life expectancy. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 171(4), pp. 763–800. doi:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00539.x.
• de Wilde, R., Wass, V., Verrall, R., Haberman, S. and Butt, Z. (2008). Applying the sixth edition of the Ogden Tables: a response from the Ogden Working Party and the tables' authors. Association of Personal Injury Lawyers Focus, 13(3), pp. 14–17.
• Butt, Z. and Haberman, S. (2004). Application of Frailty-Based Mortality Models Using Generalized Linear Models. ASTIN Bulletin, 34(01), pp. 175–197. doi:10.1017/S0515036100013945.
• Haberman, S., Butt, Z. and Rickayzen, B. (2004). Measuring Process Risk in Income Protection Insurance. ASTIN Bulletin, 34(01), pp. 199–227. doi:10.1017/S0515036100013957.
• Haberman, S., Butt, Z. and Megaloudi, C. (2000). Contribution and solvency risk in a defined benefit pension scheme. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 27(2), pp. 237–259.
• Haberman, S., Butt, Z. and Rickayzen, B. (2000). Multiple State models, Simulation and Insurer Insolvency. Giornale dell' Istituto Italiano degli Attuari, XLIII, pp. 83–109.

Course Directorship

• 2016 - present, MSc Actuarial Science, Admissions Tutor