Episode 120 - The myth that won't die


Cass Business School
Senior Lecturer in Finance

Simon Hayley joined Cass following a career covering policy analysis for government and market analysis for a range of city institutions.

His research at Cass has concentrated on investor behaviour and the misconceptions that sometimes drive it. This research has been published in leading global journals including the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Student feedback on Dr Hayley's teaching has been exceptionally positive. Only one Student Voice award for teaching is given each year within the entire School ─ Dr Hayley was given this award in both 2011 and 2015. He was also awarded School Teaching and Learning Prizes in 2009, 2012 and 2015 and School prize for excellence in research in 2014. His main teaching areas are Derivatives Trading & Hedging, Financial Markets & Institutions, Economics and Risk Analysis.

In his previous career, Dr Hayley was global market analyst at Capital Economics; senior research associate at Pareto Partners, where he conceived and researched improvements in dynamic currency overlay strategy; and a currency strategist, generating applied market strategies in FX spot and options markets. In these roles his views were widely quoted and he made many TV and radio appearances. Dr Hayley previously worked as an economic forecaster at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and as an economic adviser at HM Treasury, covering a variety of areas including macroeconomic modelling and forecasting, evaluating microeconomic policy effectiveness, market analysis and UK policy towards EMU.


  • BA (Politics, Philosophy and Economics), Oxford University, unknown
  • MSc (Economics), Bristol University, unknown
  • PhD (Finance), Cass Business School, unknown

Memberships of Professional Organisations

Charterholder, CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst ) institute, 2005 – present


Primary Topics

  • Capital Markets
  • Economics
  • Financial Markets
  • Fund Management
  • Portfolio Choice

Additional Topics

  • Futures & Options
  • Risk Management


  • 'Do retail FX traders learn?' with Ian Marsh, Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming.
  • 'What Does Rebalancing Really Achieve?' with Nick Motson, Dirk Nitzsche and Keith Cuthbertson, International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
  • Cuthbertson, K., Hayley, S., & Nitzsche, D. (2015). Market and Style Timing: German Equity and Bond Funds. European Financial Management.
  • 'Hindsight Bias in Dollar-Weighted Returns' Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Feb. 2014
  • 'Diversification Returns, Rebalancing Returns and volatility Pumping' with Keith Cuthbertson, Nick Motson, Dirk Nitzsche. SSRN ID=2311240
  • Value Averaging and How Dynamic Strategies Bias the IRR and Modified IRR -
  • Copies of working papers are available here:

Research Topics

Investment management

Formula trading rules

Retail investor behaviour

Journal Articles (4)

  • Hayley, S. and Marsh, I.W. (2016). What do retail FX traders learn? Journal of International Money and Finance, 64, pp. 16–38. doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.02.001.
  • Cuthbertson, K., Hayley, S., Motson, N. and Nitzsche, D. (2016). What Does Rebalancing Really Achieve? International Journal of Finance and Economics, 21(3), pp. 224–240. doi:10.1002/ijfe.1545.
  • Hayley, S., Nitzsche, D. and Cuthbertson, K. (2015). Market and Style Timing: German Equity and Bond Funds. European Financial Management, 22(4), pp. 667–696. doi:10.1111/eufm.12080.
  • Hayley, S. (2014). Hindsight effects in dollar-weighted returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 49(1), pp. 249–269. doi:10.1017/S0022109014000155

Editorial Activity

Financial Analyst's Journal, Referee, 2014 – present..

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