Scenarios and Forecasting: Planning for Uncertainty
Improve strategic decision-making with enhanced forecasting methods and by leveraging scenarios to foster insight.
Selecting the appropriate sources and methodology for forecasts is paramount to the success of your strategy. Systematic scenario planning can be an effective tool to improve the reliability of forecasts.
We define a “scenario” as a coherent sequence of events and decisions that create a vivid, compelling vision of what the future could look like. We define “scenario planning” as harnessing the power of scenarios to make better strategic choices. With the right tools you can design and develop effective forecasts that dramatically improve long-term decisions.
Making such decisions requires forward-looking information that is relevant and reliable. Only looking backward or ignoring uncertainty about the future will lead to flawed decisions. Effective forecasts will include both future possibilities (scenarios) and probabilities.
Utilizing the integrated approach taught in this program prepares you to create value for your organization by broadening strategic thinking about the future and creating strategies that are robust across many possible futures. You learn how to select the appropriate sources and methodology for forecasts, and then design and develop effective forecasts that improve your decisions. You will build on data and analytics, and you will learn to incorporate better judgment systematically.
Strategic Decision and Risk Management
Clarify problems, explore available options, develop a structured framework, understand the impact, and commit to your choice.
Two Day Concentrated Program
Registration begins at 8:00 a.m. and class runs 8:30 – 4:30 both days with a one-hour networking lunch included.
Strategic Decision Professionals
Our partnership with SDG combines UT's academic research and SDG's real-world experience in decision consulting to create an unmatched learning experience.
- Examine and employ a four-step process of developing and using scenarios within a strategic decision-making process
- Discuss best practices for developing forecasting models, assessing quantitative information, and updating assessments with new information
- Identify, graphically, the primary factors to be considered in a forecasting model and the relationships among them utilizing a relevance diagram
- Parameterize the model by choosing formulas to represent projections in the model
- Recognize the ambiguity and confusion created when people use words such as “likely,” “good possibility,” etc. in forecasts, rather than explicit probabilities
- Learn to assess event probabilities by studying a company that has become extremely skilled at this process
- Apply a rigorous quantitative approach to situations with very low probabilities and high consequences.