Solar Finance & Technologies
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Financially analyse, model and structure Solar Technologies with this course
his course allows participants to understand and explore some key areas:
SOLAR PROJECT FINANCE
Introducing the concept of project finance and bonds and their accessibility for solar projects. What means a bankable project and how to understand and meet lender’s ratios
We will break-up in groups to analyze financial models of different solar projects and understand the sensitivities of changing input parameters such as Yield, Capex, Opex and PPAs
We will continue the group work to discuss solutions on a financial structure to optimize DSCR, debt capacity and Debt:Equity ratio, Equity returns, NPVs, Cash-flow profile and payback
We will discuss the various aspects of risk mitigation and their importance for the financial close of a project. Looking at sample EPC, O&M, PPA contracts and polices to highlight key issues in risk management.
SOLAR PV ECONOMICS
Introduce and explain the underlying technology of Solar PV and which factors drive their costs and energy yield. We will put this knowledge into practice and model a Solar PV system to understand the sensitivities to our economic value proposition.
RESOURCES & ENERGY YIELD
Understanding the resource assessment report - standard deviation, variance and p50/p90 and their impact on bankability. •Experience of predictability and variability of solar resources assessments over time.
Learnings from national energy transitions in Germany, China and US. Growing curtailment threats in saturated energy markets. Solar tenders and LCOE and PPA lessons learned. Emerging merchant power, trading and the solar hedge against rising electricity tariffs – the new normal.
GRID INTEGRATION & STORAGE
Technological breakthroughs in energy storage as a potential game changer for the energy industry. Micro grids, mini grids and smart grid – which to connect where?
Leases, Energy cooperatives, community power and crowd funding – the bottom-up revolution is happening now. Self-consumption and net metering – market snapshots and learnings. Legal challenges for roof-tops and scale.
20% of world population without electricity access – untapped market potential. Solar pumping, Diesel Hybrids, Plug& play systems, lighting and phone charging. How mobile payment drive off-grid applications. Pay-As-You-Go Business Model to make PV Affordable.
DAY 1 – Solar Finance
- Project and bond finance within the renewable sector
- What means a bankable project?
- Understand lender’s ratios
- Project financing structures
- Complex commercial and legal relationships
- Understanding the Cash Flow Waterfall
- Calculation of CFADS, DSCR, LLCR, PLCR
- How to drive overall debt capacity
- Reserve Accounts, Cash Sweeps, Cash Traps & Dividend Blockers
- Impact on equity returns
- Multilateral banks, national development banks and export credit agencies
- Turn-key contract for engineering procurement and construction
- Equipment supply agreements – the question of liabilities and responsibilities
- O&M service contract
- availability, spare parts and reaction time
- Manufacturing warranties – typical coverage and what happens aterwards
- Off-take agreements for power, heat and certificates –the floor is the limit
- Risk instruments for construction delays, policy changes, curtailment and sun volatility
- CASE WORK: Looking at sample contracts and polices to highlight key issues in risk management
Group work: Analyse financial models on different solar projects and understand the sensitivities of changing input parameters such as
- Energy yield, uncertainties and the bankability impact
- Capex & Opex
- PPAs level and duration
Group work to discuss solutions on a financial structure to optimize:
- DSCR, debt capacity and Debt:Equity ratio
- Equity returns and Net present value
- Cash-flow profile and payback
Day 2 - Solar PV Economics
PV MODULES & CELLS
- Silicon, ingots, wafer, cells to modules & solar PV power plants
- Silicon, thin film, multijunction, organic and concentrated photovoltaics
- Application – from handheld, to rooftop to gigawatt scale
- Watt-peak, cell efficiency, performance ratio and STC – Watt means what?
- Environmental temperatures and degradation
- Current cost trends and future innovations
BALANCE OF SYSTEM
- Balance of system including inverters, transformers, cabling and structural components
- One-axis and two axis tracking system – increased energy output or headache?
- System plant design and losses – from DC to AC
- Single string inverters versus central inverters
- The efficiency curve in function of rated output power
- Driving cost down for BoS – where are CAPEX and OPEX heading to
RESOURCES & ENERGY YIELD
- From global irradiation to direct, diffuse and horizontal irradiation
- Why the sun does not shine the same for polysilicon and thin film technologies ?
- AirMass, Clearness and Clearsky Index
- Using satellite and terrestrial data available for solar resource assessment
- Uncertainties of power curves or it wasn't like this in the brochure
- Understanding the resource assessment report - standard deviation, variance and p50/p90
- Experience of predictability and variability of solar resources assessments over time
PV SYSTEM MODELLING
- Group work to model a generic PV plant to examine the sensitivities of different resource data set from various locations in the world
- Module type and inverter choice
- Array size, degradation and shading in relation to overall annual energy production, performance ratio and losses
Day 3 Solar PV Business Models
- Falling CAPEX, short construction time, stable OPEX
- Solar tenders and around the world lessons learned
- Property cost and power density beyond of 100MW/km2
- Solar hedge against rising electricity tariffs
- Peak power and trading
- Emerging merchant power – the case for mining companies
CASE WORK: business & financial modelling of a 100MW solar PV plant
GRID INTEGRATION & STORAGE
- Micro grids, mini grids & smart grid – which to connect where?
- National energy transitions in Germany, China and US
- Growing curtailment threats in saturated energy markets
- energy storage as a potential game changer
- Electricity storage and distribution strategies
CASE STUDY: Economic impact of storage for a solar PV plant
PRIVATE & COMMERCIAL
- The bottom-up revolution is happening now – market snapshots and learnings
- Self consumption and net metering
- Legal challenges for roof-tops and what about scale?
- Leases, Energy cooperatives, community power and crowdfunding – a new force
- Standardisations driving capital costs downs
- Efficient installations to reduce CAPEX
CASE WORK: business & financial modelling of a 100kW solar PV plant
- 20% of world population without electricity access – untapped market potential
- Plug& play solar home systems, lighting and phone charging
- How mobile payment drive off-grid applications
- Pay-As-You-Go Business Model to make PV Affordable
- The challenge of consumer finance and payment collection
- Solar & Diesel hybrids or substitution
CASE STUDIES: M-KOPA and competitors – the quest for scalability