Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning

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About the course

Futures Thinking, through Scenario Planning and other tools, enhance the capacity of policymakers to anticipate change in complex environments, surface hidden assumptions, and to uncover weaknesses and inflexibilities in their organisations. Futures Thinking plays an important role in provoking policymakers out of their comfort zones, to consider the bigger systemic context beyond their immediate domains, and to activate the imagination, at both the individual and organisational levels, so that the future is not simply an extrapolation of the present.

Given the ever-increasing disruptions that policymakers face in their various policy domains, and where complex interconnections between socio-economic, political, technological and environmental forces are poorly understood, Futures Thinking helps to sensitise organisations to fundamental surprise by rehearsing for different futures through Scenario Planning, thus deepening their agility and resilience.


  • Understand the philosophical underpinnings of Futures Thinking, and how it complements the strategic planning process in public policy organisations
  • Develop the necessary skills in Scenario Planning, including the scoping of a scenario project, the planning of the scenario workshops, and the development of scenario narrative frameworks
  • Learn the latest tools and frameworks that augment the Scenario Planning method, such as causal layered analysis (CLA) and different horizon scanning and “wild card” methodologies
  • Receive one-to-one coaching on projects that they are currently handling

Who should attend

This masterclass is designed for policy analysts, researchers, managers and domain specialists who have responsibilities for long-term planning for their organisations. It is also useful for middle and senior level managers who might be commissioners and end-users of futures products such as scenarios and horizon-scanning report

Trust the experts

Adrian Kuah

DR. ADRIAN KUAH Head (Case Studies Unit) & Senior Research Fellow, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Adrian Kuah is Head of Case Studies Unit and Senior Research Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. His research interests include futures studies, complexity science, and poli...


Cheryl Chung

Cheryl Chung is the Deputy Director of Strategic Planning at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Prior to joining the School, Cheryl worked for the Singapore Government for 12 years where she led foresight and strategy activities across several ministry portfolios. Her work mainly focused o...


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