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Hertie School of Governance

Decision Support Through Foresight Analysis and Scenario Planning

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Decision-making in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world can quickly become a costly and risky endeavour – not only in the realm of foreign and security policy but also in the private sector. Foresight analysis and scenario planning are powerful analytic methods for lowering risks in decision-making and for providing decision makers with policy options. Participants in this course work on a current international policy challenge and learn how to apply techniques of foresight analysis and scenario planning in a practical way.


Oliver Gnad is the Co-founder and Managing Director of the Bureau für Zeitgeschehen, a Berlin-based think-and-do-tank specialising in strategic foresight and scenario planning. He has been a fellow of the Dahrendorf Forum since 2015. From 2008 to 2016, he served as Director of GIZ AgenZ, an in-ho...